- Published on
DKNG $40/$42 1/16/26 Call Debit Spread
- Authors
- Name
- Loi Tran
Introduction
The Fantasy Sports Betting(FSB) industry has grown every year for the past 15 years as estimated by Fantasy Sports & Gaming Association’s (FSGA).
| Year | Estimated players (millions) | YoY change / CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 32.0 | — |
| 2011 | 35.9 | +12.19% (2010 → 2011). |
| 2012 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2013 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2014 | 41.5 | 2011 → 2014 total +15.60%; CAGR = +4.95%/yr (applies across 2011–2014). |
| 2015 | 56.8 | +36.87% (2014 → 2015). |
| 2016 | 57.4 | +1.06% (2015 → 2016). |
| 2017 | 59.3 | +3.31% (2016 → 2017). |
| 2018 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2019 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2020 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2021 | — | (no annual FSGA datapoint available) |
| 2022 | 62.5 | 2017 → 2022 total +5.40%; CAGR = +1.06%/yr (applies across 2017–2022). |
Thesis
On 9/30/26 HOOD announced that they had handled 4B contracts all time in their FSB vertical pumping their price and tanking their competitors.
The market thinks that HOOD is going to eat other FSB companies lunch such as DKNG.
Analyzing DKNG I found that it's RSI is 15 after their sell off, indicating they're oversold.
I'm long DKNG as they've got a moat which HOOD will have a hard time overcoming after comparing the features/functionality of both platforms.
I'm going Long DKNG with a